Duke basketball vs Alabama prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Duke basketball and Alabama play Saturday (8:49 p.m., TBS/truTV) in the Elite Eight of the 2025 men's NCAA Tournament.

Cooper Flagg and the top-seeded Blue Devils (34-3) will battle Mark Sears and the second-seeded Crimson Tide (28-8) at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, for the East Regional championship. The winner will head to San Antonio for the Final Four.

Duke and Alabama are meeting for the first time in March Madness, but the Blue Devils are 8-3 in the all-time series. Duke has seven-game winning streak in the series, but the teams haven't played since 2013 in a neutral-site game at Madison Square Garden.

Here are some players to watch and a score prediction for the Elite Eight matchup between the Blue Devils and Crimson Tide.

Cooper Flagg, Mark Sears headline Duke vs Alabama in Elite Eight

Duke's Cooper Flagg and Alabama's Mark Sears, two of the biggest stars in the NCAA Tournament, will be in the spotlight with a spot in the Final Four on the line. Sears, a fifth-year guard, buried BYU with a barrage of 3-pointers, finishing with 10 treys and 34 points. Flagg produced another stat-sheet-stuffing effort against Arizona in his best game of March Madness. The projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Flagg had 30 points to go with 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. Both players are fully capable of swinging Saturday's game at any moment.

Alabama's experience could be key vs Blue Devils in NCAA Tournament

The Blue Devils' three losses this season came against teams with rosters inside the top 10 of Division I experience, according to KenPom. Alabama fits that mold as the No. 9 team in experience, led by Sears and three other seniors in the starting lineup. Freshman guards Labaron Philon is the lone underclassmen among the Tide's starters. On the other side, Duke starts three freshmen around a junior and senior. Two of Duke's three losses came to Kansas and Kentucky in November, but Alabama's experience could be key in a close game.

Duke basketball 2-point defense vs Crimson Tide 2-point offense in March Madness

The Crimson Tide has the edge in experience, but the Blue Devils tower above the rest of the nation with the tallest roster in the sport. No player in Duke's starting lineup is shorter than 6-foot-6, meaning two of Alabama's top scorers — 6-foot-1 guard Mark Sears and 6-foot-1 guard Aden Holloway — will have to deal with that length. The key factor could be Duke's top-ranked 2-point defense (43.2%) vs. Alabama's elite 2-point offense (60.1%). There's also the flip side of that stat. Defensively, the Tide are 96th in 2-point defense (48.8%) and the Devils are sixth in 2-point offense (58.6%). Duke has more ways to win because of its balance, but Alabama's ability to string together scoring flurries makes it as dangerous as any team left in March Madness.

Duke prediction vs Alabama: March Madness Elite Eight

Duke 85, Alabama 79: Both teams have elite bucket-getters, but the Blue Devils are far better at stacking stops. As it has for most of the season, Duke's defense will be the difference. Jon Scheyer's Devils will beat the Crimson Tide and cut down the nets in Jersey.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.